Election 2006

Texas-23: Republicans fear that Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) has already squandered his chance to destroy former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) with negative advertising in the upcoming runoff election before the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee could step in and begin pummeling him. Bonilla has stuck with positive ads until very late in the game. He polls just above 50 percent, which is a good sign, but Rodriguez is within striking distance.

This race will provide a very important gauge of Republican prospects for winning the Hispanic vote in the future and over the long haul. Bonilla has now held this district long enough and won enough Hispanic votes in the past that he should be able to show enough strength among Hispanics to overcome extreme left-winger Rodriguez. Rodriguez lost his old district to Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) in a primary, then lost again, thanks to his inattention to the district and his anti-trade politics, which were always detrimental to its border-port city Laredo.

If Rodriguez pulls this off, particularly after getting just 20 percent in the first round of the special election, it may give reason to fault Bonilla for being too positive with his campaign. But it may also signal such an unbreakable Democratic lean among San Antonio Hispanics that Republicans are a decade further away from being competitive than they thought.

Early voting has already begun. Leaning Republican Retention.

Sincerely,

Robert D. Novak

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